2026 United States Midterm Elections · 13 Days to Election Day

Who wins Congress in November?

Explore the battle for the 435-seat U.S. House and 35 Senate races through two live forecasting engines: an interactive county-by-county voter swarm and a 40,000-run Monte Carlo election night simulator.

Launch Voter Swarm Atlas → Monte Carlo Simulator → 16 Key Toss-Up Races ↓

Stipple engraving illustration of the United States Capitol dome

Live Majority Scoreboard · Nov 3, 2026

The 120th United States Congress

All 435 House districts & 35 Senate races

U.S. HOUSE (435 SEATS)218 for majority

Democrats 92%

Projected: 229.6–230.0 D vs. 205.0–205.4 R Market: 79% D ↗

U.S. SENATE (35 UP)51 for majority

Toss-up · 58%–61% D

Projected: 51.0–51.2 D vs. 48.8–49.0 R seats Market: 53% D ↗

Two Ways to Explore the 2026 Election

Click either live preview below to launch the full interactive experience

FEATURED · INTERACTIVE VOTER ATLAS

Cumberland, ME · Collins vs. Challenger · D+4.1

Stark County, OH · Brown vs. Husted · R+1.8

▶ Mar – Nov 2026 Campaign Scrubber 6,000 County Voter Agents →

The Voter Swarm Atlas

Bottom-Up Simulation

Zoom into all 3,144 U.S. counties and 435 congressional districts. Watch synthetic voter households converse in local social networks, react to 2026 economic news, and shift week by week toward Election Day.

2026 House Forecast

230.0 D – 205.0 R

92.1% chance Dem majority

2026 Senate Forecast

51.0 D – 49.0 R

58.2% chance Dem majority

Launch the Swarm Atlas →

40,000 SIMULATIONS · LIVE ELECTION ROLLER

Draw #1 · House: D 230 – R 205

Monte Carlo Simulator

Top-Down Econometric

Roll individual simulated 2026 election nights or drag the national generic-ballot slider to test wave scenarios across redrawn 2026 districts, live polling averages, and correlated state shocks.

2026 House Forecast

229.6 D – 205.4 R

91.9% chance Dem majority

2026 Senate Forecast

51.2 D – 48.8 R

60.9% chance Dem majority

Open Election Night Simulator →

The 2026 Races Deciding Congress · Model vs. Market Odds

Compare our Swarm & Monte Carlo probabilities against live prediction market contract prices

Election Eve Dispatch · Nov 2, 2026

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Independent Forecasting & Reader Support

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